DetroitTigerblogs: August 2010

Here we are in September, 2010, five months into Dave Dombrowski’s ninth season as general manager of the Detroit Tigers.   The Tigers have a payroll of $ 130 million, a lineup that features three to five rookies, at least five players that began 2009 in the minor leagues somewhere on the field, a record that is plummeting, little hope of contending for a division title, and nobody on the farm that has much chance of filling any of the numerous vacancies that will be left on the roster after this season, when some $ 75 million in expiring bad contracts comes off the payroll. That’s $ 75 million in contracts that no other general manager would take off Dombrowski’s hands, even for nothing.    The situation presents challenges, but also presents significant opportunities.

This is not about calling for Dombrowski to be fired.   He won’t be. This is not about blasting DD for failing to win a division title in nine years, the last five of which he has had the highest payroll in the division, although that is a point that needs to be made.   This is an attempt to analyze where the Tigers are, how they got here, and where they should go from here to field a contender, if not a division winner on a regular basis.

We all know the history. The Tiger team that Dombrowski inherited when he was brought in as Tiger President over then GM Randy Smith was abysmal.   It was not the worst team in Tiger history, though. That is something that happened shortly after DD took the reigns, and began the tear down before the build up.   Let me hasten to head off the argument that many will make in DD’s favor, that he’s better than Randy Smith, or that we should be thankful for giving us teams that are better than those that he inherited.   Sorry, but that’s not good enough.   Not when you are given the financial resources to put a team on the field that should be able to win division titles in what is usually a weaker than average division. Zero titles in nine years is not good enough, and I suspect that Dave would be the first to admit that.

DD’s supporters will immediately point to the improbable run to an American League pennant, and the Tigers first appearance in a World Series since 1984, a period of 22 years.   He gets full credit for that, without a doubt.   And he had a payroll in 2006 of $ 82.6 million, which had gradually increased from a payroll of just $ 46.8 million in 2004.   The questions that naturally arise from the Tigers record under Dombrowski are- 1. What methods were used to put together a winning team so quickly once DD took over in Detroit, and 2. What has gone wrong since 2006 that has prevented the Tigers from getting back to the playoffs ?

The Tigers built a team that could make that run by using various methods of player acquisition

.   - The Draft: They drafted Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya, two pitchers that were a mainstay in the rotation and the bullpen. They had drafted Curtis Granderson in the 2003 draft, and Brandon Inge had been drafted by Smith.

- Free Agency: hey had signed two prominent free agents to multi-year contracts, in Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez. It bears mention here that both of those players were high profile signings, although neither had been highly sought after in free agency due to health and aging concerns. They signed Todd Jones, an old former Tiger who’s career was on it’s own roller coaster, finding a resurgence with the Marlins in 2005.   They signed Kenny Rogers , a veteran presence in the rotation who won 17 games for them. Others such as Fernando Rodney, an international free agent, and Ramon Santiago, a minor league free agent, filled out the roster and played important roles in the pennant chase.

- Trades:   Perhaps the method that DD has become most known for in Detroit are his signature trades.   The 2006 Tigers had traded for Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, and Placido Polanco.   There were also a couple of “deadline deals” where the Tigers acquired Sean Casey and Matt Stairs.   Casey was the regular first baseman during the pennant run and into the playoffs.

- Extensions:   There was just one contract extension of note given to a primary member of the 2006 tigers, and that was to Placido Polanco, the AL MVP.

The 2006 run to the pennant was as beautiful as it was improbable.   The team had finished the previous season with 72 wins and 90 losses, had fired their legendary hero Alan Trammell from his job as manager, and cleaned out 84 heroes Lance Parrish and Kirk Gibson with him, In his first year as Tiger skipper, Jim Leyland led the Tigers to 96 wins, a four game series win over the New York Yankess who boasted “the best lineup in the history of baseball”, and a four game sweep of the Oakland A’s to claim their first pennant in 22 years.   But then what happened?

What happened is that DD’s methods changed, like flipping a switch after the 2006 World Series.

Free Agency:   Dave Dombrowski basically quit signing free agents, giving out no multi year contracts to a free agent for another three seasons until Jose Valverde was given a two year deal in 2010. In four seasons from the end of 2006 to the start of 2010, DD signed fewer free agents than any other team in the league, and all but Valverde were given one year contracts, which severely limited the caliber of player that can be signed. The full list from 06- 09 includes Adam Everett, Francisco Cruceta, Brandon Lyon, Jose Mesa, Matt Treanor, and Fu Te Ni. They all have one thing in common. They were all cheap, or at least they were bargain signings.   Lyon was the most expensive at 4.25 million, about half the normal price of a good free agent closer.

Extensions:   Dombrowski went hog wild, doling out lavish contract extensions over the next two seasons to just about any player that had a hand in the 2006 pennant run. Four years to Guillen, Inge, and Bonderman, three years to Robertson, one year extensions to Rogers, Jones, and Casey. Rodriguez had a $ 13 million option picked up, and Magglio’s $ 18 million option was allowed to vest. The results of these extensions has been an unmitigated disaster.   In addition, DD traded for Dontrelle Willis and gave him a three year, $ 29 million extension, and traded for Gary Sheffield with a $ 42 million extension. Each and every player named above has spent a few months either on the DL or has been released from the roster. He also signed Adam Everett on the cheap, and extended him, only to release him within two months. After 2006, it seems that the only extensions that paid dividends for the Tigers were those given to Miguel Cabrera, and Ramon Santiago.   Blame injuries, blame bad luck, blame the weather if you like, but the fact of the matter is that the club was exposed to a risk on each of these long term deals. The players that were signed were often veterans with a recent track record of declining performance or players still developing, where DD bet on their continued improvement.   All added up, hundreds of millions of dollars were given out in extensions to these players, leaving no payroll flexibility to add any pieces needed in the next few seasons.

Trades:   There have been trades, of course the most notable being the deal with the Marlins that sent six players for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.   Both players were immediately signed to long term extensions, with Cabrera’s being the only notable extension that hasn’t blown up on them since Polanco’s extension in 2005.   The extension given to Willis was perhaps the worst move of DD’s tenure with the Tigers.   They also traded Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria. Both Edgar and Dontrelle had problems before they were acquired, but DD’s scouts just flat blew their analysis, IMO.   The comments at the time indicate that DD was “surprised” by Renteria’s lack of range, and he bet $ 29 million that Willis would reverse a two year decline on the mound.   Both were major disappointments.    AT least the Tigers had the good sense to not pick up Renteria’s option, and they cut their losses. Gary Sheffield was also acquired and given a $ 42 million extension, and I think it’s fair to say that was a bust with Sheff playing for the Mets while the Tigers paid $ 13 million in his final year.

Deadline Deals: The Tigers made no significant deadline deal in 2007 when they finished second, they sold Pudge for Kyle Farnsworth, the sequel in 2008, and they picked up Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff in 2009, both being busts down the stretch. The 09 deals both had the potential of providing a significant boost, but both players had been very inconsistent in their careers, and it would be no surprise if they proved to be a blast or a bust.

Minor moves:   The usual activity occurred involving minor league transactions. These are low budget moves normally designed to find a bargain in a player whose career has gone off track. What is notable is that DD heavily relied on acquiring minor leaguers to fill out the roster, particularly in the bullpen, rather than strictly for depth.   Names like Rincon, Bazardo, Williamson, Eischen, Mantei, and Bautista were counted on to fill major league roles, usually with poor results. One fairly significant minor league trade involved the acquisition of Armando Galarraga, who pitched well in Toledo, got a call up when there was a vacancy, and was the team’s best starting pitcher in 2008.

Rule 5:    DD did make a couple of Rule 5 selections, in 2007 grabbing     And    , then Eduardo Campusano and Kyle Bloom, two more of the many being counted on as possible fill ins for the bullpen were chosen and returned to their respective clubs.   There was no Chris Shelton in this group.

Drafting:   The draft choices that were made under DD to make it to the majors since 2006 have been about average in quantity, but well below average in quality.   Verlander and Granderson remain his two lone All Stars via the draft, although the drafts in more recent years could hold a few promising players such as Jacob Turner and Rick Porcello.   Other top draft choices were used as bargaining chips to land Miguel Cabrera, Aubrey Huff, Renteria, and Sheffield, but none of those has gone on to make an impact in the major leagues.   It is fair to say that DD’s drafts have been sub standard, IMO, although his trade for Cabrera goes a long way to mitigating the damage that could have been caused by successive seasons of poor drafting.

2010:

Free agency. .     In 2010, DD changed course a little and signed Johnny Damon, and Jose Valverde, both getting much more money than any other free agent had gotten in three years previous. These acquisitions have to be viewed, however within the mathematical reality of the situation.   DD absolutely had to clear some payroll space in order to replace any of the departing free agents that were leaving, or payroll would climb even higher than it was in 2009. That was not going to happen, so DD made the trades necessary, allowed Polanco to walk as a free agent, replacing him with Sizemore who proved to be not ready for showtime, and bringing back Adam Everett on the cheap. releasing him before the end of May.   DD’s priority in free agency within the financial constraints that he had created with $ 72 million in bad, immovable contracts, was to sign a closer, shore up the bullpen, and clear some salaries while replacing the dearly departed as best he could.      He first offered arbitration, then made contract offers to Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney hoping to find his closer and/ or set up man, but with the knowledge that they were likely headed to market for more money elsewhere.   In my book, both were given more than their value by their new clubs, and I think the results will prove that to be the case.

The two free agents that DD did sign, Valverde and Damon, were paid for with the money saved in the Granderson and Jackson trade.   Everetts salary was paid by releasing Marcus Thames, and Brad Thomas was acquired while Matt Treanor was released.   Penny out, penny in. Penny out, penny in. The early returns on DD’s free agent signings is once again very positive. Valverde was an All Star, and Johnny Damon is one of the few players in the lineup that is able to get on base and score some runs.

Extensions:    DD had no money to extend any of the free agents without clearing payroll first. Polanco was allowed to walk without so much as an offer of arbitration which could have netted two first round draft picks, Lyon and Rodney were offered arbitration knowing that they’d decline, and Everett was extended.   AS usual, the extension failed, and Everett was released before two months had passed.

Trades:   DD did the best that he could do with the bad situation that he had created for himself, in my opinion.   He had four possible players with any value that he could trade and clear some salary. The rest were either minimal salaried players, or bad contracts that no GM would take. The four were Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Verlander, and Cabrera.   Even Cabrera may not have brought back full value, because of his late season issues, and the huge amount of money he was owed for six more seasons.

So DD traded Granderson and Edwin Jackson, replacing Jackson with Scherzer who had five years left to Edwin’s two, and getting Phil Coke, Dan Schlereth, and the probable 2010 ROY in Austin Jackson   With this trade, DD seems to have turned his luck back in a positive direction, and found some players that may contribute to a competitive club for several years.   In the process, he cleared enough payroll to sign a top closer and to rent Damon to take Polanco’s lineup spot.

Deadline deals:     The 2010 deadline did not yield much by trade, unless Jhonny Peralta can reverse what was looking like a two year decline from All Star level performances, enough to justify picking up a $ 7 million option.   But like 2007 when the team did not have the horses to make a title run at the Indians, DD did not make a move to replace the massive hole that was left in the lineup by the injury to Ordonez, or to shore up a rotation that ranked 12th in the league in ERA, or an upgrade at any of the obvious weak spots in the lineup at Catcher, or around the infield.   The result is that there was a division title laying on the table, and we can’t pick it up.

So here we are.   A team which was in first place one day prior to the All Star break has suffered injuries to three of those that were an integral part of the 2006 title run. Two were given lucrative extensions and one had an $ 18 million option vest for this season.   They’ll miss about four to six months between them, and in their absence the team has fallen out of contention as though someone threw the bus in reverse as it was flying down the turnpike.   Just as the rotation seems to be starting to come around, the bullpen has lost Zumaya and Bobby Seay and is struggling find late inning help for the newly acquired Valverde and Coke. Recent drafts have produced Weinhardt and Perry, and more talent behind them, but they’re still very inexperienced.

Perhaps most discouraging at the present time is the total lack of position player help on the way.   There is none, IMO. There is a quantity of players from which surely will come a few good men, such as Brennan Boesch, but the injuries to the veterans exposed the team’s lack of depth, and total lack of position talent on the farm. Not a single player that can be even average is there to fill in one of the many vacancies coming at 2B, SS, 3B, RF, DH, Catcher, Starting pitcher, or set up man, let alone fill the shoes of a No. 2 or 3 hitter such as Damon or Ordonez.    DD has his work cut out for him.   $ 75 million coming off the payroll helps, if he’s willing to spend it, but even then, there are no ready answers on the market for infielders, and the starting pitching market is also very thin this winter.

DD will need to go back to the formula that got the Tigers their pennant run in 2006.   He’ll need to hit the free agent market and dole out some multi year contracts to some top name free agents.   He will need to make some trades to fill other positions of need. He will need draft picks to mature into top level talent, and a few minor moves have to pan out along the way.   AT least this time, he has a core rotation that has been the product of his draft strategy. That’s a big head start. He will need to stop avoiding the multi year contracts on the free agent market- where the talent is in the outfield, and start avoiding long term extensions for existing players, and avoid trading for aging players or those on a two year decline that other clubs are dumping.

There was some sign of creative trading and free agent signings this past winter, even given the tough financial constraints that he placed himself under, but the trade for Peralta and nobody else at the trade deadline is not a good sign if that is the method that he plans to use this winter.   We’ve seen where that road leads, and it’s not pretty. DD said that he almost made a big trade at the deadline. We’re pretty tired of the almosts with this team, in the end being left disappointed. Tired of not winning a division for 23 years, too. He said that coming up short on that trade “took the wind out of you”, but the holes are still there, and the season is all but over now.    We feel your pain, Dave. Do you feel ours?

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